Theo and the Catchers: Top Two Decisions

Like many other kids, I fell in love with baseball from a very young age. However, compared to everyone else I talked to, my love for the game was quite different. I was always enamored with the art of building a roster from the ground up. So much so that I found myself enjoying days like the trade deadline and the winter meetings more than any individual game. I would follow every move around the league and discover those executives I liked, and those I thought only still had a job because Brad Pitt played them in a movie. That’s why today I’m going to talk about the biggest move the Phillies could make in this offseason; sign Theo Epstein to be our president of baseball operations. After I’m done completely nerding out, we can get into what everyone really wants to hear about... the catcher situation.

Over the last few weeks there have been rumors swirling around that the president of baseball operations for the Chicago Cubs, Theo Epstein, would be stepping down after next season. I felt it was an interesting decision for Theo to willingly put himself in a lame duck situation. The rumor also specified that it would be for GM Jed Hoyer to step into Theo’s role. As someone who followed closely as the Cubs built the core that wound up ending a 108 year championship drought, something felt off. Jed certainly didn’t need any more teaching to be ready for the job and the situation surrounding Theo just felt weird. Ultimately, it played out in a much more logical way with Theo stepping down this week in favor of taking a year off. I’m here to tell all Phillies fans and especially John Middleton, DO NOT LET THE YEAR OFF HAPPEN.

Theo reportedly is looking for a portion in ownership with his next undertaking. He also will likely be looking to become the highest paid executive in the league. The Phillies shouldn’t even think twice about these demands. Theo is a future Hall of Famer who returned two historic clubs to success in the Red Sox and Cubs. He is the kind of mind that can come in and stabilize what is starting to look like a rocky future in Philadelphia. However, we have a core in place and Theo can build around them to return Phillies baseball to its 2008-2011 glory days. We need to bring him in now, make him an offer he can’t refuse and let's fill out this baseball team.

Once Middleton brings Theo in, there is one big question he’ll have to answer: What to do about the JT Realmuto situation. In an offseason where the Phillies don't seem willing to open the check book, other catcher needy teams do. JT presents an interesting dilemma. On one hand, you have the best catcher in baseball and a true leader on and off the field. On the other hand, he’s getting up there in age for a position that isn’t friendly on the body. Catchers also can’t play every game and premium catcher bats are not as potent as premium bats at other positions. While JT deserves to be the highest paid catcher in baseball, the Phillies seem to know it is wise to avoid paying him as a premium position player. That being said, I’m willing to stretch the budget a little more than usual because of what JT means to the team. The maximum I’m willing to give Realmuto is $135 million over 5 years. Anything more than that I feel is hamstringing the future of the team and they could be better off dividing that money amongst other positions.

If not JT behind the plate then who? Well contrary to popular belief, there are multiple other options to be the Phillies back stop next year. It is important for everyone to keep in mind that the goal shouldn’t be to replace JT’s offensive production at this position but rather try to mitigate the defensive loss and recoup the offensive from another position. Most of the targets I’ve identified are good to great defenders behind the plate while leaving room in the budget to add pop to the lineup. We’ll start with options from free agency.

The top free agent catcher after JT is James McCann. McCann is a year older but should come at a much lower price tag. He really broke out in 2019 making his first all-star team in his first year with the Chicago White Sox. After that season, the White Sox seized the opportunity to sign the second best catcher in baseball, Yasmani Grandal. This left McCann to split time and considerably dropped his price tag. While he produced solid numbers this year, he only played in half of the White Sox games so 2019 can give a more accurate look of what to expect. That year he slashed .273/.328/.460 with 18 home runs and 60 RBI’s. In comparison, in 2019 JT slashed.275/.328/.493 with 25 home runs and 83 RBI’s. There’s no debate JT is better however the offensive drop off has the potential to not be as large as one might think. Over their careers they’ve also both averaged a 33% caught stealing. It is also notable that they both ranked inside the top 10 in pitch framing. This statistics point out that McCann is also within striking distance of JT defensively. McCann has potential to be an underrated find in free agency for whoever signs him. While there is no replacing the impact JT’s leadership has on this club, James McCann should be number one on the wish list should JT go elsewhere.

If the Phils strike out on both JT and McCann, the other options to consider in free agency would be Mike Zunino, Yadier Molina, and Wilson Ramos. Of these guys, the only one who I think there’s even a possibility of ending up in Philly is Zunino. Ramos’ defensive struggles alone are enough to exclude him from consideration. I would love to add Yadi, however, I find it hard to believe he ends up anywhere other than St. Louis so I refuse to even entertain the thought. That leaves Zunino, who is as average as they come. He has a .200 career batting average and doesn’t do enough defensively to hide that. On a really cheap deal, the Phillies could do worse if they just need a body. Though there are certainly much better options on the trade front and if they miss on JT and McCann, that is exactly where they should turn.

The first call the Phillies should make when exploring a trade for a backstop should be to the World Series champion LA Dodgers. The Dodgers have a logjam behind the plate with Will Smith and Austin Barnes already contributing and top prospect Keibert Ruiz waiting in the wings. Smith is only 26 and has been a solid offensive piece for the Dodgers, especially in this past postseason. While Smith presents the most sure offensive production from the trio, Barnes was their defensive ace ranking in the 96th percentile for pitch framing. If it were up to me, Barnes would be the target but being that he acts as Clayton Kershaw’s personal catcher, there could be some complications in completing a trade. Production wise, I would expect he would have the lowest cost of the three. The biggest wildcard would be Ruiz. He is a switch hitting, 22 year old who is one of the top catching prospects in the game. If attainable, he could be a great value grab for the Phils, however, I expect the Dodgers would have a high price tag on him or would prefer to move Smith or Barnes.

The other call I would make would be to Theo’s old team the Chicago Cubs. The Cubs currently have both Wilson Contreras and Victor Caratini at catcher along with a top catching prospect in Miquel Amaya. Both are solid defenders in their mid-to-late 20’s and would be an excellent choice should we need a new catcher. While both good, Caratini presents the better defense and Contreras offers better pop as a two time all-star. Ultimately the asking price may be too high on these guys and they may not even be available. If the Cubs are willing and the price is right either Cub catchers would be an intriguing option.

The last trade candidate is Gary Sanchez. He is rumored to be available and I believe a team should take a shot on him. However, I don’t think that team should be the Phillies. He is a poor defender coming off a terrible season at the plate. He could be a good bounce back candidate for a young team, likely at the DH spot, but his flaws should be enough to scare off the Phillies.

Ultimately, there are plenty of options out there should we move on from JT. The priority should still be to retain him but if that’s off the table, our top priority should be McCann. We don’t have to give up any assets to acquire him and I believe his stock is on the rise. If available, Contreras would be a great third option. Otherwise, looking to any of the other trade candidates I’ve outlined and going for the one with the lowest price tag would be the best option. All I can say is buckle up as it’s going to be a long offseason. Though don’t worry, I’ll be here every step of the way to keep providing targets and explanations! Thanks for reading and see you next time to break down other positions!