State of the Rotation

Many avid baseball fans find themselves running into the same problems. We have too much to say but not enough people to listen or understand. I found myself yearning for an outlet for me to share my Phillies opinions with others. Thus, PhilliePhitz was born! I wanted to start with a lighthearted post that embodies the type of fan I am. In a day and age where everyone is clamoring for offense, I also tend to lean more toward an appreciation for the art of pitching.

The last decade of Phillies baseball has seen rotations that would rival any other in the history of the game. However, we've also witnessed two years of Jeremy Hellickson as an Opening Day starter. The 2020 Phillies find themselves somewhere in the middle ground there. The large majority of the rotation options are younger arms, though during the rebuild they were able to gain valuable experience.

We start, of course, with staff ace, Aaron Nola. Two years back Nola finished 3rd in the Cy Young award race but struggled to replicate that same dominance. The key to Nola's effectiveness is control. His fastball isn't overpowering, but he has a nasty curveball in his arsenal. In outings where he got roughed up at all last year, it was often because he would lose location of his fastball and didn't have the feel for the curve. Even in his better starts he seemed to be running more three ball counts and, as a result, would be pulled for pitch count. At this point it's no secret that the baseballs were altered last year, reportedly by having the seams lowered. This would make the ball sleeker and decrease the pitchers ability to command it. During spring training this year, many pitchers commented that the ball felt like it was back to the old one. If this is case, expect Aaron Nola to be closer to our Cy Young candidate.

Another pitcher who was heavily affected by the altered baseball was Zach Eflin, or the prize of the Jimmy Rollins trade. Eflin thrives when he's keeping the ball lower in the zone. Under pitching coach Chris Young, the Phils employed an organizational strategy of throwing the fastball up in the zone and utilizing more breaking balls. This led to Eflin getting shelled on a consistent basis and all his past success being forgotten. Late in the season he seemed to work through his troubles and became an effective pitcher again. It then came out that he had decided to abandon the organizations philosophy and return to what had worked for him his whole career. For this reason, I am confident that with a much more respected pitching coach in Bryan Price in his corner, Eflin can be a solid contributor to the rotation.

The coaching staff is going to have a much more positive effect on the team than we've seen in years. Potentially the biggest beneficiary could be the off season prize, Zack Wheeler. When watching Wheeler, it's really hard not to get excited about his arm. His problem has always been consistency. He showed two different sides to him last year in the first and second half. The first half showed a pitcher a team may insert to the backend of its rotation, though a fantastic second half is what helped propel him to his 5 year, $118 million deal. The concern would be that Wheeler starts slow, in which case a shortened season wouldn't give him enough time to get going. On the other hand, he may just simply pitch better in the late summer months, which would obviously be promising for this season. Pitchers tend to be head cases and seemingly insignificant details can either make or break their success. Either way, hopefully getting him with Bryan Price can unlock his consistency to turn in full seasons of the second half ace Wheeler has shown to be.

While I'm pretty optimistic about the first three guys I mentioned, that's not the case across the entire rotation. Jake Arrieta's body has shown the effects of what a long career as pitcher can do. Every time he seems to flashing signs of optimism, a new injury is reported. In a shortened season hopefully Arrieta will be able to provide the team with solid innings but at this point, hope for anything close to a 2015 version of Arrieta seems futile. However, as long as he's willing, he has the knowledge and experience to help bring along the younger arms on the staff.

Next up is the duo of Pivetta and Velasquez. So often these two are put in the same category by fans and its usually not for good reasons. Although, these guys have flashed in the past. Who could forget the day when Velasquez seemed to sit Padres hitters down as fast as the came up or the times he'd leave teams hitless into the 5th or 6th only get run out the game that inning. Pivetta showed serious strikeout potentially by nearly punching out 200 batters in 2018. Both have needed to add new pitches and reports are they have responded well, with skipper Joe Girardi even speaking highly of Velasquez's new cutter. In the shortened season, innings will be at a premium. I expect at least one of the two to fall out of the rotation. Their experience as starters should still allow them to be stretched out to throw multiple innings in relief. With a step forward aided by the new coaching staff and a willingness to accept a bullpen role, Nick Pivetta and Vince Velasquez could be unsung X factors for the 2020 staff.

Finally, we get to Spencer Howard. Originally it was expected that Howard would spend much of the season in the minors since he had never thrown a major league quantity of innings in his career. Now, there aren't that many innings to be had so Howard will able to contribute with little to no restrictions. The only thing to keep in mind with Howard is that the Phillies could be hesitant to burn a full year of service time for a season that doesn't seem to hold the same weight as others. Rumors are that keeping a player down for 7 days allows the team to gain an extra year of service time. The smart play would be to skip over his first turn in the rotation and then bring him up the next time around to give them an extra roster spot between those two starts and retain as many years of control on Howard as possible. Spencer Howard is a very promising young, stud arm. For a team looking to spend now, being able to keep as much young talent on cheaper deals is imperative to opening a longer window to win.

Ultimately, the NL East is stacked with a lot of top end hitters. Now, the only other teams we'll be seeing are the AL East. There will be no shortage of challenges for the starting staff of the Phillies this year. It will be up to the 1-2 punch of Nola and Wheeler to ease the burden off the others pitchers to best set this team up for success. While the others may not be as well known it is certainly not that far fetched to believe the rotation could have multiple others step up behind the first two by taking steps forward under the new coaching staff. Most likely, the Phillies will only go as far as their offense carries them. Tune back in soon for the breakdown of the "State of the Phillies Offense" on the PhilliePhitz blog!