Explaining the JT Saga

Hey everyone sorry for the delay between blogs, but I’m moved fully into school now and settled in and now I should be able to write much more consistently! To make up for it, I decided not to make you all suffer through reading a blog about our bullpen. Watching them blow games and be on track for a record setting bullpen ERA has already been painful enough for all of us. Instead, I’ll be answering the question everybody has been wondering; why hasn’t JT been resigned yet. While the answer may seem to be organizational malpractice, and there may be some truth to that, the real answer can be found by breaking down a timeline of when the contract realistically could’ve been agreed to. Let’s start with the beginning of the offseason.

In the beginning of this offseason, it was reported that both the Phillies and JT wished to make this a long term partnership. It was also understood that JT would command a record setting contract on the open market. The MLB Players Union is considered one of the strongest in the world as players currently up for free agency look out for those to come after them. We saw this when fellow catcher Yasmani Grandal waited through the previous offseason, turning down lower average annual value contract offers that were multi year deals to instead sign a one year deal at a higher AAV. Catchers right now feel that they are undervalued and are trying to get their value to reflect their statistics as any other position player. Teams on the other hand realize that even top catchers such as Grandal and JT won’t be able to play a full 162 game season due to the stress that catching puts on their knees. For this reason, organizations have historically valued the catcher position differently than the other position player spots. With this being the last year that JT would be eligible for salary arbitration, before hitting the open market it was also his last chance to raise the value of the catcher market before negotiating the terms of his own contract.

In salary arbitration, the player and his representatives along with the team representatives both come up with a number they feel the player is worth for that next season. Then, if no other contract is agreed to before the arbitration date, they go in front of an unbiased arbiter that hears both arguments and determines who to side with from there. JT filed at $12.4 million for this year, while the Phillies filed at $10 million. While it seems crazy to go to basically trial with one of your star players over only $2.4 million, that increase would provide a huge precedent come long term negotiations. JT filed at a number he felt his numbers warranted for any position player. This precedent then could’ve led to another $20-$30 million at least on the final contract, which could further handcuff the team when building the rest of the roster. However, the Phillies were still looking out for JT as the $10 million salary for this year still broke the record for a catcher's salary arbitration number.

Sadly, salary arbitration cases aren’t handled until basically the very beginning of spring training. At that point, negotiations actually began to heat up with both sides expressing a desire to get a deal done before Opening Day. This is incredibly common for catchers especially to not want to enter a season without multiple years on their contract. Catchers take more a beating than any other position, causing concern that they are at a higher risk of getting hurt in a contract year, thus, killing their value. Unfortunately, as it seemed the two sides were progressing toward a deal, the league was put into a roster freeze when COVID delayed the season. This meant no negotiations could take place as the questions of if we would even see a season grew. Ultimately, when the season FINALLY began, JT was no longer staring down a full 162 slate. Instead it was only 60 games with a DH spot to give him even breaks from being behind the plate. Especially given the economic uncertainty with the owners crying poor due to no fans allowed in games, it further confused what the market would be for a premier catcher both offensively and defensively. While the defensive is more important than any other position on the diamond for a catcher, we often see that even the highest tier offensive catcher production tends to lack behind elite numbers for the other positions. The market for JT is truly a mystery to both sides and there’s only one way for the two sides to reach a deal that is fair for both sides. JT has to hit the open market where negotiations can take place with all 30 teams. Otherwise, the only way the Phillies could get JT to sign a deal now is to outbid themselves and over pay him. Inversely, JT is so close to being able to hit the open market that it makes no sense for him to take any offer from the Phillies that would be described as fair. Once he hits the market both sides will get a clear read as to what the value of an elite offensive and defensive catcher is, allowing for JT to pave the way for catchers to come in the future and for the Phillies to retain one of their most important players/leaders at his value so they can still fill out the rest of the roster (aka add to the bullpen so we can actually hold onto leads).

It’s a complicated system but when breaking down the teamline, there was really only a short time in spring training to get the deal done. I’m personally of the belief that the two sides were progressing toward a deal prior to the shutdown. However, I still believe there’s a mutual desire to make it happen. JT wants to win, the Phillies, by jumping early on a chance to add the bullpen, which is the one element truly holding them back, is showing they still want to win. It will ultimately come down to the Phillies willingness to outbid the other suitors or at least match the highest offer. With Bryce Harper, ownership showed they will do just that to get their guy and they already showed JT is their guy by giving up their top pitching prospect and then handing JT a record in arbitration. Unfortunately, all we can do now is wait for the free agent market to open.